Oscar Isaac, John Boyega and Daisy Ridley in Chris Terrio and J.J. Abrams' 'Star Wars The Rise of ... [+]
The Rise of Skywalker will still presumably pass $1 billion worldwide, but the domestic and global totals of The Last Jedi are now all-but-certainly out of reach.
Just in case I don’t have time to do a full post on this, I should not that Fox and Disney’s Ford v Ferrari just passed $200 million worldwide. That’s a pretty solid result for an old-school studio programmer, one powered by strong reviews, movie stars (Matt Damon and Christian Bale), a marquee director (James Mangold coming off of Logan) and the promise of male-centric escapism sans fantasy or superheroes. The movie still has some work to do to justify the $97 million budget, but that it crossed $100 million domestic and may factor into the Oscars means that Disney may be inclined to let Fox make more “Fox movies” in the near future. If you come when they build it, they’ll keep building it.
Anyway, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker earned another $15.2 million domestic and $20.9 million overseas on Monday, giving the film a $377.3 million domestic, $383 million foreign and $761.5 million worldwide cume. Sans inflation, it will pass the $381 million domestic finish of Revenge of the Sith (in 2005) by the end of this sentence, with Phantom Menace ($474 million, counting the 3-D reissue) next on the list in terms of Star Wars movies. It just passed Hobbs & Shaw ($759 million) to become the year’s ninth-biggest global grosser, behind Aladdin ($1.05 billion), Joker ($1.062 billion) and Toy Story 4 ($1.073 billion). Of note, the film dropped 28% from Sunday ($21 million) and 48% from last Monday ($29.2 million).
The Last Jedi
That 48% drop is slightly troubling, as it’s larger than the 29% drop on Monday number two for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (which opened on a Wednesday), the 25% drop for The Two Towers (ditto) and the mere 21% drop for The Force Awakens which opened on a Friday and also had the whole “opening weekend straight into the holiday break” advantage that didn’t greet Rogue One and Last Jedi. Both of those films went up from their first Monday to their second Monday, which was not expected here since those films’ respective holiday breaks didn’t kick into until the second Friday for Rogue One and the second Monday for Last Jedi.
The Force Awakens earned $143 million in its first Mon-Thurs frame and then fell just 21.7% for $112 million over its next Mon-Thurs frame before the end of the holiday season. It also earned 3.5x its Monday gross over that second Mon-Thurs frame, which would in this case give Rise of Skywalker a 14-day total of $416 million domestic heading into its third weekend. That will be way behind the $464 million 14-day cume of Star Wars: The Last Jedi but well ahead of the $375 million 14-day cume of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. So, barring a miracle, it’s all-but-impossible that Rise of Skywalker will earn as much in North America ($620 million) as The Last Jedi.
Revenge of the Sith
It will, today, out-gross both Return of the King ($377 million in 2003) and Revenge of the Sith ($381 million in 2005) in raw domestic earnings. It’s already the biggest-grossing December release ever outside of the last three Christmas Star Wars movies. Its worldwide cume ($764 million) is already past Attack of the Clones ($649 million) and will be past Revenge of the Sith ($850 million) by the end of this weekend. Presuming a 40% weekend drop (Force Awakens fell 40% in weekend three, so let’s be optimistic), it’ll end the weekend with around $460 million (between Star Wars and Phantom Menace) domestic and around $915 million worldwide. It’ll pass $1 billion before the end, and by any other measurement it’s a big hit.
But even if it, from this point on, is as leggy as The Force Awakens (1.64x its $571 million 11-day cume), it’ll still miss Last Jedi’s $620 million by a nose. And Last Jedi-like legs (1.57x its $395 million 11-day cume) will give Rise of Skywalker a $592 million finish. Ironically, if it’s as leggy as Rogue One going forward, which is not likely because Rogue One had strong second-week legs due to the beginning of the holiday break, we can expect a $630 million domestic cume. It will be interesting to see if Star Wars IX can match the $585 million overseas gross of Hobbs & Shaw (including $200 million in China).
Star Wars Episode One: The Phantom Menace
The last three Christmas Star Wars movies earned between 1.19x (Last Jedi) and 1.26x (Force Awakens) their respective 17-day grosses. If Rise of Skywalker plays as outlined above, and heck, let’s be optimistic and give it $65 million for the Mon-Thurs frame, a 35% third-weekend drop for a $47 million third-weekend gross. That would be, offhand, a $474 million 17-day total (essentially tied with Phantom Menace) and on a course for a domestic finish between $565 million and $600 million. So, barring a Jedi mind trick or some other variable, Rise of Skywalker has almost no chance of catching up to the domestic ($620 million) and worldwide ($1.333 billion) cumes of The Last Jedi.
It’ll still be the year’s second-biggest domestic grosser, between The Lion King ($543 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($865 million). And by any standard save for maybe an Avengers movie, the last few Star Wars “episodes” and whatever becomes of Avatar 2, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is a big hit. That it will come in slightly below optimistic expectations is not in itself a failure or a tragedy, as frankly I expected the film to get better reviews and, all due respect, be a better movie. The one thing I didn’t count on was the powers that be pulling a Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald with a bit of Spectre and Spider-Man 3 thrown in.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMicWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmZvcmJlcy5jb20vc2l0ZXMvc2NvdHRtZW5kZWxzb24vMjAyMC8xMi8zMS9zdGFyLXdhcnMtYm94LW9mZmljZS1yaXNlLW9mLXNreXdhbGtlci13b250LXRvcC1sYXN0LWplZGkv0gF1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZm9yYmVzLmNvbS9zaXRlcy9zY290dG1lbmRlbHNvbi8yMDIwLzEyLzMxL3N0YXItd2Fycy1ib3gtb2ZmaWNlLXJpc2Utb2Ytc2t5d2Fsa2VyLXdvbnQtdG9wLWxhc3QtamVkaS9hbXAv?oc=5
2019-12-31 18:00:12Z
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